Some notes about Energy

There are three profound challenges facing the energy sector around the world. First, the great commodity super cycle has come to an abrupt end, leading to crashes in the oil, coal and gas prices - undermining the finances of the main producer countries and the companies. 

Secondly, the climate challenge is upon us, and if it is to be addressed, the fossil industries will have to close down over the rest of this century, with or without CCS.

Third, and partly spurred by the drive for low carbon forms of energy, technical change is bringing a transformation not seen since the nineteenth century. New forms of electricity generation, storage, smart infrastructures and radical changes to energy demand are already undermining the conventional technologies. Electric cars and the challenge of new materials to the petrochemical industries are playing their parts too in this great period of change.

These three great changes all fit together.

Energy

Energy
Energy

Energy
Europe

Energy
Climate Change

Latest Publication

Peak oil demand image

Peak oil demand and long run oil prices by Dale and Fattouh: a critique

February 12, 2018

Energy Video

The challenge of climate change has left the oil companies on the back foot. What do they do? They are beholden to their shareholders, who look to their dividends and in many cases treat them as proxies for utilities. Those dividends are built on oil...

Publications

  • Publication Energy Greg Clark's energy agenda
    September 5, 2016

    Greg Clark the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) starts with a number of distinct advantages. He knows about energy, having been shadow Secretary of State for DECC in the run up to the 2010 General Election and ...
  • Publication Energy Flawed in almost all its parts – the final CMA report on electricity markets
    July 18, 2016

    The CMA spent roughly 80 years and spent £5 million, identified that the bulk of customers (around 70%) were being charged around £1.4 billion in excess of the “competitive” price, and concluded that it was mostly their own fault for not switching. The £
  • Presentation Energy Decarbonisation and the consequences for the German and European energy markets
    June 9, 2016

    Presentation for BDEW Conference
  • Publication Energy The future of fossil fuels - is it the end?
    April 15, 2016

    Contrary to the assumptions underlying much of current energy and climate policies, fossil fuels have fallen and may remain at the new “normal” levels. In the medium term, Iran and Iraq have considerable potential to increase their outputs, and the new sh
  • Publication Energy After Hinkley - how to contract for the rest of the nuclear programme
    April 5, 2016

    Whilst a great deal of attention has focussed on the project to build twin European Pressurised Water Reactors (EPR) at Hinkley, less has been paid to what happens next. There are ambitious plans for another twin EPR reactor at Sizewell, and other types o
  • Publication Energy The CMA Energy Market Investigation: Companies 5-0 CMA?
    March 15, 2016

    The Big 6 energy companies have scored a great victory at the CMA, and against considerable odds. Faced with an adverse finding that they have made excess returns of around £1.7 billion per annum for the period 2012- 2015, rising to £2.5 billion in the la
  • Video Energy Fossil Fuels: Is it the end?
    March 5, 2016

    Video Presentation for Warwick Climate Forum
  • Presentation Energy The Price of Oil - in the short and long run
    February 9, 2016

    Presentation slides for International Petroleum Week conference - 9th February 2016.
  • Publication Energy The new normal: oil prices after the crash
    February 9, 2016

    They did not see it coming and ever since the oil price started its precipitous crash from the $100 level, they have been reeling. The “they” includes investors, company directors and the resource-cursed governments. At first, they expected it to be a tem
  • Video Energy The new normal- oil prices after the crash
    February 9, 2016

    They did not see it coming and ever since the oil price started its precipitous crash from the $100 level, they have been reeling. The “they” includes investors, company directors and the resource-cursed governments. At first, they expected it to be a tem
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