Some notes about Energy

There are three profound challenges facing the energy sector around the world. First, the great commodity super cycle has come to an abrupt end, leading to crashes in the oil, coal and gas prices - undermining the finances of the main producer countries and the companies. 

Secondly, the climate challenge is upon us, and if it is to be addressed, the fossil industries will have to close down over the rest of this century, with or without CCS.

Third, and partly spurred by the drive for low carbon forms of energy, technical change is bringing a transformation not seen since the nineteenth century. New forms of electricity generation, storage, smart infrastructures and radical changes to energy demand are already undermining the conventional technologies. Electric cars and the challenge of new materials to the petrochemical industries are playing their parts too in this great period of change.

These three great changes all fit together.

Energy

Energy
Energy

Energy
Europe

Energy
Climate Change

Latest Publication

Cost of Energy Review Thumbnail

Cost of energy review: independent report

October 25, 2017

Energy Publication

Independent review undertaken by Professor Dieter Helm CBE puts forward his proposals on how to reduce costs in the power system in the long-term whilst ensuring the UK meets its climate change targets.

Publications

  • Presentation Energy Decarbonisation and the consequences for the German and European energy markets
    June 9, 2016

    Presentation for BDEW Conference
  • Publication Energy The future of fossil fuels - is it the end?
    April 15, 2016

    Contrary to the assumptions underlying much of current energy and climate policies, fossil fuels have fallen and may remain at the new “normal” levels. In the medium term, Iran and Iraq have considerable potential to increase their outputs, and the new sh
  • Publication Energy After Hinkley - how to contract for the rest of the nuclear programme
    April 5, 2016

    Whilst a great deal of attention has focussed on the project to build twin European Pressurised Water Reactors (EPR) at Hinkley, less has been paid to what happens next. There are ambitious plans for another twin EPR reactor at Sizewell, and other types o
  • Publication Energy The CMA Energy Market Investigation: Companies 5-0 CMA?
    March 15, 2016

    The Big 6 energy companies have scored a great victory at the CMA, and against considerable odds. Faced with an adverse finding that they have made excess returns of around £1.7 billion per annum for the period 2012- 2015, rising to £2.5 billion in the la
  • Video Energy Fossil Fuels: Is it the end?
    March 5, 2016

    Video Presentation for Warwick Climate Forum
  • Presentation Energy The Price of Oil - in the short and long run
    February 9, 2016

    Presentation slides for International Petroleum Week conference - 9th February 2016.
  • Publication Energy The new normal: oil prices after the crash
    February 9, 2016

    They did not see it coming and ever since the oil price started its precipitous crash from the $100 level, they have been reeling. The “they” includes investors, company directors and the resource-cursed governments. At first, they expected it to be a tem
  • Video Energy The new normal- oil prices after the crash
    February 9, 2016

    They did not see it coming and ever since the oil price started its precipitous crash from the $100 level, they have been reeling. The “they” includes investors, company directors and the resource-cursed governments. At first, they expected it to be a tem
  • Publication Energy Stranded Assets - a deceptively simple and flawed idea
    October 22, 2015

    The stranded assets argument has an elegant simplicity. Start with a maximum of 2 degrees warming. Work backwards to the total amount of additional carbon dioxide that can be emitted, consistent with this constraint. Compare this with the booked reserves
  • Publication Energy Reforming the FiTs and capacity mechanisms: the 2-stage capacity auction
    September 3, 2015

    Back in 2010, as Energy Market Reform (EMR) was getting going, I proposed a 2-stage auction as a way of combining mechanisms for meeting the carbon targets with the maintenance of a sufficient security margin. The first stage would be open to all, and the
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